THE AIM for this post is to share with you a more portable version of Dr. Deming’s famous Red Bead Experiment I’ve been working on as a solution for eager learners who don’t have access to a paddle and bucket of red and white beads but still want to experience the basic gist of the game. Known as The Red Dice Experiment, it can be enjoyed either solo or with a group of up to six “willing” players - all that’s required is three polyhedral dice that can easily be sourced online or via your local game store, a score sheet (you can use my handy-dandy Excel Process Behaviour Chart template), and a Process Behaviour Chart to plot the results.
If you’re unfamiliar with the experiment, see my Sept. 10/21 newsletter on The Parable of the Red Beads.
NB: Because we’re rolling dice instead of mechanically-sampling beads, the variation this game presents will be an approximation of the real experiment. During development, I experimented with different combinations of dice and rules for rolling them to get as close as I could to the random distribution of red beads in typical runs. This said, you may find you get different results with different dice. Your mileage may vary!
The Dice
Three polyhedral dice stand-in for the paddle and beads which you can easily find online or at your local game shop.
You will require three specific dice to play: 1x12-sided die (d12), and 2x10-sided dice (d10). You can be purchase these dice separately, but it may be easier to source them from a standard set of seven polyhedral dice. I recommend getting them in red to stay with the theme, but any color will do.
Tip: If you can’t get access to some physical dice, go virtual with a dice rolling app that simulates the physics of the dice rather than a random number generator. This is critical to maintain a connection to the original intent of the experiment that relies on physical interactions between the components. I use Dice on my Android phone, and I just found this fun 3d dice roller that can be used through a browser.
How to Play
The first step is to gather some players together! As with the original experiment, the best experience is with six willing workers. You will play the other roles for Team Lead, QA, and Data Analyst. If you can’t fill all six worker slots, have them double-up with a persona, or you can stand-in for one.
Like the original experiment, this one is also played in four rounds or “days” with each “willing worker” taking a turn rolling the dice to see how many defects they released into production and delivered to the customer. If you’re playing solo, you’ll be rolling for each worker. After each roll, the results are recorded on your Red Dice Experiment Scorecard and the dice passed along to the next player until the last worker’s shift.
Where’s the White Dice?
In order to keep the complexity of the game down and the pace quick, I’ve hand-waved them away in favour of just focusing on the defects. Yes, I know: this abstracts away some important aspects of the experiment vis-a-vis interactions of beads with each other affecting results, including variation in the white and red beads themselves: it’s a tradeoff to make the game more accessible.
Scoring the Red Dice
Each worker rolls the dice summing the d12 face value with that of the lowest d10. For example, if I rolled a “2” on a d12, and a 6 and 5 on the d10s, my total defects for the shift would be 7:
I’d then enter this into the scorecard next to my name, which you can find in the HANDOUTS worksheet in the Official Red Dice Experiment Scoring System Excel workbook, or you can just enter the figures into the automated scorecard in the DATA ENTRY worksheet.
A shift is completed when all participants have rolled the dice. If you have fewer than six players, have them create personas that they will roll for.
The Daily Events
As with the original Red Bead Experiment, each day our worker’s paradise is beset by The Daily Haranguing from our manager who is trying to improve our performance by doing anything except improve our system of work. Any suggestions for improvements are met with indifference and explanations that it’s above our pay grade to concern ourselves with such things.
Of course, you can change these up, but I’d keep the rating and ranking after the third shift and layoffs before doubling-up the next day’s shifts for the survivors. Read them aloud as you progress through the game’s turns.
The Daily Haranguing: Day 0
Your new manager welcomes you to the White Dice Company and is enthusiastic to have you joining the team. He explains how production works by demonstrating how to ship white dice but with some defects for demonstration purposes only (rolls red dice). He says your daily shift’s results will be recorded in a Defects Scorecard and shared with upper management, but not to worry as he knows you’re all above-average by your academic record and past performance.
As you look around your workspace, you notice there are motivational posters on the walls with inspiring photographs and bold lettering expressing the ideals of teamwork, how quality begins with us, and why we always need to think of the customer.
The Daily Haranguing: Day 1
Everyone puts in a shift rolling their dice and entering their results in the scorecard.
The manager (or whomever plays his role) sums up the first shift’s defects and average, noting who achieved the fewest and most defects. He’s not impressed.
He tsk-tsks the worker with the most defects, pulling them aside for a private chat about their poor showing and explains that company policy requires they be put on a Performance Improvement Plan or lose their job. The requirement is modest: get the least amount of defects or you’re out. He suggests focusing on the job and working harder.
Beaming, he turns next to the worker with the least defects. He gathers everyone around as he gives the worker a Certificate for Outstanding Shift 1 Achievement! He urges everyone to follow their example of the type of worker who will go places at The White Dice Company. As a token of appreciation, he gives them a small cash award and says there’s more where it came from as he rewards performance!
Next, he reports the total defects to upper management and returns explaining that they are now adopting OKRs in an effort to improve performance: “Your OBJECTIVE will be to produce THREE defects or less per shift! Your KEY RESULTS will be recorded in the Scorecard and assessed by management! I suggest you all follow the example of your recently-awarded peer!”
The Daily Haranguing: Day 2
The second day’s shift begins, with everyone rolling and recording their results.
The manager once again does the sums and average for the shift and looks displeased: The defects are still too high to be acceptable for the customer.
If the Best Performer has now slipped, he admonishes them, otherwise he lords their results over the rest of the team as a way to encourage them to do a better job.
If the Worst Performer improves, they chide them by noting that they just needed a little encouragement from him to do better, otherwise they ask them what their problem is, if they need to time off, do some retraining, take advantage of the company EAP… anything to help. He does remind them that they could be terminated at any time if things don’t improve.
Once again, the manager reports the total defects to upper management and returns with an announcement: “I have been authorized by the C-Suite to initiate a Pay-for-Performance Program! The first worker to achieve their OKR will be given a bonus of $100!” Before departing, he briefly turns back: “One more thing: We will be conducting performance appraisals after tomorrow’s shift, so focus like your job depends on it, because it probably does!”
The Daily Haranguing: Day 3
Everyone shows up to work a little early today, excited about the prospect of earning a $100 bonus, after some practice rolls, they begin their shift.
The manager does his routines on the scorecard, and tsks-tsks once more. The rate of defects still hasn’t improved. Sum up each worker’s defects for the three shifts and enter in the “P.R.” column.
If someone achieved their OKR, he claps them on the back and says loud enough to be overheard: “Good work! Your job is safe, for now!”.
If no-one achieved their OKR, he gets straight to conducting the performance appraisal.
The manager looks at the scorecard noting who the top-3 and bottom-3 performers in the P.R. column are and announces layoffs for those who were “below-average”: “This is a difficult day for us at The White Dice Company. Tough economic headwinds have put extreme pressure on revenue. We can only afford to retain top-performing talent, so I am saddened to announce the departure of three good friends and colleagues. Please know you will be missed! Those affected will receive severance commensurate to shifts worked along with access to our job search and placement program. We wish you well!”
He then turns to the remaining three above-average workers, thanks them for their hard work and dedication which has proven management’s instincts correct on how to lead The White Dice Company to profitability. However, the workload hasn’t decreased, so they will all need to pick up the slack left behind by their laid-off coworkers. Each worker will now choose a laid-off worker’s shift to roll for in addition to their own.
If the OKR Performance Bonus hasn’t been collected, the manager reminds everyone it is still on the table, and he’s sure one of them will collect. Otherwise, he tells them that the future of the company is literally resting on their shoulders.
The Daily Haranguing: Day 4
The mood is uneasy and a little grim, but our intrepid above-average, willing workers put their best efforts forward and roll for their two shifts, noting the results on the scorecard.
The manager sums and averages the results and reports them to upper management. After a short while, he returns ashen-faced: “I’ve just spoken with the C-Suite and they have told me we are now in litigation with our customers over our defect rate. While you put in best-efforts today, it wasn’t enough to save the contract. We will be suspending operations today and seeking bankruptcy protection. Any bonuses that would have been paid are now forfeit to our creditors. Hopefully, if we come out whole, we can ensure you get your last paycheque and any outstanding awards.”
Debrief Questions
Plot your results on a Process Behaviour Chart, either using my Excel PBC Template (v1.3) or my Official Red Dice Experiment Scoring System (read: Excel workbook), which does all the hard work for you as-you-go.
The Chart
Looking at the PBC you’ve created, how would you describe the results?
Do all the data points fall below the upper limits (red line) ?
What type of variation are you seeing?
Did any of the management interventions have any effect on the number of defects produced? Why?
Debrief Questions:
Day 0:
What were your initial perceptions of the experiment and how it was set up?
Day 1:
What effect did the Performance Award and PIP have on the respective workers?
What effect did it have on Day 2 performance?
Day 2:
How did the best and worst performer do?
What effect did the OKR set on Day 1 have on performance? Why?
Day 3:
What effect did the $100 bonus have on performance? Why?
What effect did the bonus have on the workers? Why?
How did the Performance Appraisal go?
Day 4:
What effect did the layoffs have on improving performance? Why?
Did either the best or worst performer survive to the closing of the business?
Overall:
What are the components of The Red Dice Experiment? How do they interact? NB: Did you use virtual dice? What effect do you think they had on results? Why?
Given what you’ve observed and experienced, what is the predominant factor in how the employees performed?
Can you think of any analogs in your own work experience to what you’ve learned?
If you were to continue playing the game for another four shifts, what do you predict the results would be? Why?
Consider the cumulative average of red dice over the four days: what do you think it would “settle out” to over many successive rolls? On what basis do you make this prediction? Is it rational? How would you know?
Tell me what you think…
And so concludes my short post introducing you to The Red Dice Experiment, an on-the-go solution for running The Red Bead Experiment when you don’t have access to the equipment, space, or time. I’d love to hear your feedback on how running the game went for you and your teams and what changes you’d suggest - let me know in the comments below!
Related Posts
The Parable of the Red Beads (Sept. 10/21)
A Rational Basis for Prediction (Feb. 3/22)
Red Bead Redux (May 11/23)
I did this with my brothers, I added to it a convoluted process for how they are to shake the dice (and blamed them for not doing it properly when getting bad rolls). One of them even forgot for a minute that the process has nothing to do with what number is rolled. It was a lot of fun and worked very well.
The most important thing is we heard from my sister who works at a local water park that their sales manager is in danger of loosing his job, because of poor revenue last year due to storms and weather. And my youngest brother, who is 13, said "Hey, that's just like that dice game we played! He can't help it that the weather was bad!" Even a 13 year old can be more competent than MBAs! LOL
This is great. I've been inspired by your writings to go back and refamiliarise myself with the red bead experiment. I've only ever experienced it online (YouTube etc) and have always wanted to run a session using it as the basis for learning more about systems thinking but ... the cost and purchase of the paddle/beads is quite expensive where I live. Now I have a viable (and portable) model to use. Many thanks.