Chanticleer Revisited

An Easter Egg Hunt Inspired by an Obscure Reference in The New Economics

Knowledge is built on theory. The theory of knowledge teaches us that a statement, if it conveys knowledge, predicts future outcome, with risk of being wrong, and that it fits without failure observations of the past.

Rational prediction requires theory and builds knowledge through systematic revision and extension of theory based on comparison of prediction with observation.

The barnyard rooster Chanticleer had a theory. He crowed every morning, putting forth all his energy, flapped his wings. The sun came up. The connexion was clear: His crowing caused the sun to come up. There was no question about his importance.

There came a snag. He forgot one morning to crow. The sun came up anyhow. Crestfallen, he saw his theory in need of revision.

Without his theory, he would have had nothing to revise, nothing to learn.

Deming, Dr. W.E. The New Economics. 2nd Ed. (p. 102), 3rd Ed. (p. 70)

THE AIM for this newsletter is to take you on an Easter Egg hunt to share with you a profound and moving discovery I made while doing some research into an allegory Dr. Deming used to teach the relationship between theory (prediction) and knowledge in The New Economics: the tale of Chanticleer the Rooster.

What I had assumed was an Aesop-style parable to make a point turned out to have a deeper meaning than I expected, leaving me to wonder if Dr. Deming intentionally left it behind like a missing piece that finishes an epic puzzle. I could be reading more into it than there is or was, but it fit so well that I thought it important enough to document here.

So, be forewarned: this isn’t the usual newsletter where we study Deming’s philosophy of management and apply it to contemporary contexts: this is a brief review of the origins of Deming’s reference and a possible hidden meaning within it.

The Origins of Chanticleer

The character of a boastful rooster has been with us since the time of Chaucer, who first wrote about Chanticleer and the Fox in The Nun’s Priest’s Tale in his classic book, The Canterbury Tales. In this story, Chanticleer allows himself to be flattered into crowing his beautiful morning song by an opportunistic fox who snatches him by the neck before he can crow his first note. Lesson: beware those who heap flattery on you, for they may have ulterior motives.